Posted by
Catmman on Friday, July 24, 2009 10:37:09 AM
How many "Waterloos" can one guy have in a week?
Nature not man responsible for recent global warming
Three Australian researchers have shown that natural forces are the dominant influence on climate, in a study just published in the highly-regarded Journal of Geophysical Research. According to this study little or none of the late 20th century global warming and cooling can be attributed to human activity.
"The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely" says corresponding author de Freitas.
"We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis.”
According to the three researchers, ENSO-related warming during El Niño conditions is caused by a stronger Hadley Cell circulation moving warm tropical air into the mid-latitudes. During La Niña conditions the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Walker circulation, west to east in the upper atmosphere along the equator, dominates.
"When climate models failed to retrospectively produce the temperatures since 1950 the modellers added some estimated influences of carbon dioxide to make up the shortfall," says McLean.
"The close relationship between ENSO and global temperature, as described in the paper, leaves little room for any warming driven by human carbon dioxide emissions. The available data indicate that future global temperatures will continue to change primarily in response to ENSO cycling, volcanic activity and solar changes.”
So. Nature (primarily) NOT man-made (anthropogenic) forces are responsible for AT LEAST 80% of any measured global temperature increases. Not coal-fired power plants. Not EXXON-Mobil. Not your F-150 or your bat-b-que grill. And it's peer reviewed, the bugaboo the lefties use against their detractors on this issue. "Well, your science isn't peer-reviewed! " They can't just pass this off. Additionally, the UN IPCC is specifically sited, revealing they knew this mechanism was working and their climate models can't effectively account for it more than 12 months out.
All those extrapolations out to 2030, 2050 or even 2100 are...wait for it...GUESSES!
Nature. Who woulda thunk it?
More ammunition in the continuing "car & trade" fight.
Read the whole report here.