Posted by
Catmman on Tuesday, March 25, 2008 11:04:18 AM
First a really short primer on solar-cycle activity:
The more active the sun - the shorter the interval: the solar cycle runs more intense and the higher the global temperatures.
Basically as anyone with a modicum of sense realizes, the sun is the biggest driver of global climate. Who'd a thunk it right? You mean a STAR only a few million miles away influences planetary temps? What?! /sarcasm off.
Up until 1998-2001 the solar cycle was fairly strong and had run through it's time period resulting in resultant increases in global temps throughout the cycle. Said cycle ended around the '98-00 time frame. And resultant global temps have either plateued, or dropped, for the last 7-9 years since the end of that cycle.
Cycles run anywhere from 10-15 years (12 is the average). The following conclusion is reached:
The current cycle (23 which peaked in 2000) length is still TBD but is likely to be at least close to 12 years. This would imply the cooling that appears to have started in 1998/99 or 2001/02 depending in data set used is real and will continue/accelerate.
So we can expect global temps to either remain relatively static, or they will continue to drop, for AT LEAST the next FOUR YEARS, perhaps longer.
Who exactly are the deniers in this "debate" again?