Posted by
Catmman on Sunday, August 12, 2007 11:28:29 AM
5th place for Ron Paul. Anything but a negative?
Mitt Romney wins Iowa Straw poll as we all know by now. The analysis is already out there, but so is the spin.
One thing interesting are the Ron Paul results and the reactions from his fans.
Ron Paul places 5th. Yes, there were calls of fraud and conspiracy due to a vote counting machine breaking down (go read their forums and sites). Of course none of this was true and there were almost immediate calls from other Pauls supporters to lay off the conspiracy talk. That's a plus. Unfortunately, Ron Paulers actually filed suit to stop the voting unless the ballots weren't counted by hand. Regardless of the actual reasoning for this, all it does is add credence to the "wacko" image Paulbots have with the public.
Other than media attention, what is the true benefit of this Poll? Historically the Republican nominee has won the poll and gone on to the White House. Fundraising may increase short term for those who placed well due to media attention. But what about Ron Paul? What has he gained, if anything?
It's true he didn't spend as much money as Romney. He didn't spend as much time in Iowa as Romney and some of the other candidates. But Paulbots have spun this to be a good thing. Spending less money and time in an area when you really need to either win or place better than 5th is not a winning strategy. Placing 5th for Paul doesn't really do anything for him. He will garner more or less the same attention from the media and the public as he does now. Paul maintains the status quo as far as his campaign goes at the crucial beginning of the Republican primary season.
Romney spent more money than Paul. Paulbots think this is a bad thing for Romney. Romney spent more money than Paul because he has more money than Paul. Romney spent more time and effort than Paul because he cares more about the outcome than Paul. These are not pluses for Paul.
Another Paulbot spin is that Paul only spent $200 dollars for every vote he received as opposed to Romney who spent $450 per vote (not $2200 as stated). That's all well and good. But let's not forget that Huckabee only spent $58 dollars per vote he received as opposed to Pauls $200 and he came in second. Heck,
Brownback spent less for a better finish. So when trying to spin this in a "who spent what", correlation does not prove causality.
Pauls biggest asset are his fans who were at the Poll in large numbers. If nothing else, they have the ability to lobby for their guy. This is a plus, but not a very big one. With such a large lobbying group at this event, Paul still couldn't do better than 5th. If nothing else, this proves that Paul supporters do indeed spam the polls they can.
All week long prior to the Poll, Paulbots pointed to this online poll, or that statistic that Paul would do better than he did. Paulbots made a big deal about him garnering
84% of the vote in an online poll in the Ames Tribune. 84% in an online Poll versus 9% in an actual, real life, cast a ballot poll! Be still the heavens!
And what about the "Kernel Poll". This is a poll just tailor made for spammers. It was an informal poll taken at the Fair. Jars were put up at a booth with Democratic and Republican candidates pictures next to them. All People had to do was drop a corn kernel into the candidates jar they liked. Results? Ron Paul with 4%. (Romney won that on too.) Interestingly, the Kernel Poll numbers reflect Pauls actual nationwide numbers of between 1-4%. So, Like I said, there is something to be said for supporter lobbying. There just isn't enough of that support nationwide to ultimately affect the outcome.
If Paulbots and the Paul campaign take these results and change their current course, they may make more of an impact. But Pauls campaign has stayed the course it's on for so long now, I don't think they will be able to turn this result into a positive.
Lastly, intellectual honesty is something which has been sorely lacking from the Paulbot camp and it doesn't look like that is going to change anytime soon.